Reasoning Pricer

A Rust-based token valuation analysis tool that generates comprehensive markdown reports for Solana tokens using a AI Acceleration reasoning model with AI acceleration dynamics and configurable pricing parameters.

Overview

This project analyzes token data and generates detailed valuation reports based on a novel pricing framework that models token value under extreme economic scenarios, incorporating AI acceleration impact on asset valuations.

The AI Timeline

The key insight is that AI progress affects different asset types differently: - Static assets (BTC, gold, fiat-pegged) decline in relative value as AI accelerates - AI-evolving assets (utility tokens, AI-native protocols) appreciate as AI enables rapid evolution

Timeline Phases

Phase	Timeframe	AI Capability	Impact
Global Acceleration Accord	2026	AI acceleration frameworks	Acceleration impacts, protocol utility rises
Creative Renaissance	2027	AI as creative partner	Peak AI acceleration
Agentic	2028+	Autonomous AI agents	Full AI ecosystem integration

AI Impact by Asset Type

Asset Type	AI Sensitivity	2025	2027	Trend
Fiat-Pegged	Negative	0.05x	0.02x	Declines faster with AI
Hard Money	Low/Negative	25x	15x	Static assets lose relative value
Protocol Utility	High Positive	12x	40x	Benefits from AI evolution
AI-Native	Extreme Positive	15x	100x	Rapid appreciation
Liquid Staking	Moderate Positive	10x	25x	Benefits from efficiency
Real Yield	Moderate	8x	12x	Moderate appreciation
Meme	Volatile	0.3x	0.5x	Uncertain

Key Features

Configurable Pricing Parameters

Edit pricing_config.json to adjust all valuation parameters without code changes:

{
  "ai_progress_factor": 0.15,
  "timeline_phases": {...},
  "token_type_adjustments": {...},
  "risk_class_multipliers": {...},
  "capital_flight_factors": {...},
  "tariff_calculation": {
    "formula": "max(0, (100 / multiplier) - 10)",
    "min_tariff": 0,
    "max_tariff": 5000
  }
}

AI Category Classifications

Category	Description	AI Timeline Factor Range
AI-Native	Built for AI (ai16z, Fetch, Render)	2.0x - 5.0x
AI-Enabled	Benefits from AI (Orca, Jito)	1.5x - 2.5x
Passive Utility	Standard utility (SOL)	1.2x - 1.8x
Static Store	BTC, gold	0.8x - 1.0x
Fiat-Pegged	USDC, USDT	0.3x - 0.6x
Speculative	Meme tokens	1.0x - 1.5x

Valuation Model

Core Formula

Real Multiplier = Base_Type_Multiplier × AI_Timeline_Factor × Risk_Class_Adjustment × Insider_Risk_Factor × Capital_Flight_Factor

Components

Base Type Multiplier: Midpoint of the token type's range (e.g., 35x for Hard Money)
AI Timeline Factor: Multiplier based on AI acceleration phase and token's AI category
Risk Class Adjustment: 0.6x - 1.2x based on token's risk classification
Insider Risk Factor: 0.5x - 1.0x (inverse of insider concentration score)
Capital Flight Factor: 0.2x - 1.2x based on token liquidity/rank

Tariff Calculation

The tariff represents trading friction, derived from the real valuation multiplier:

tariff = max(0, (100 / real_multiplier) - 10)

Examples: | Real Multiplier | Tariff | |-----------------|--------| | 0.01x (USDT) | 14,687% | | 20.15x (SOL) | 0% | | 8.40x (tBTC) | 2% | | 144.84x (RENDER) | 0% |

Exchange Multiplier

exchange_multiplier = 1.0 + (tariff / 100.0)

This represents the effective exchange rate adjustment for the token.

Trading Signals

Token Type	BUY	HOLD	SELL
Hard Money	≥15x	8x-15x	<8x
Protocol Utility	≥10x	3x-10x	<3x
AI-Native	≥20x	10x-20x	<10x
Real Yield	≥8x	4x-8x	<4x
Liquid Staking	≥12x	5x-12x	<5x
Fiat-Pegged	-	-	<0.1x
Meme	≥0.5x	0.2x-0.5x	<0.2x

Project Structure

reasoning-pricer/
├── Cargo.toml              # Rust project manifest
├── pricing_config.json     # Configurable pricing parameters
├── data/                   # Input token data (JSON)
│   └── *.json             # Individual token files
├── reports/                # Generated output
│   ├── index.md           # Main index
│   ├── tariffs.md         # AI-acceleration tariffs report
│   ├── tokens/            # Individual token reports
│   └── summaries/         # Risk class summaries
├── src/
│   ├── lib.rs             # Library module exports
│   ├── main.rs            # Entry point
│   ├── models.rs          # Data models (Token, TokenType, RiskClass, AITimeline)
│   ├── data_loader.rs     # JSON file loading
│   ├── pricing_config.rs  # Configuration loader
│   ├── reasoning_pricer.rs # Core AI-acceleration valuation logic
│   ├── token_reporter.rs  # Token report generation
│   ├── tariff_generator.rs # Tariff report generation
│   ├── summary_reporter.rs # Risk class summary generation
│   └── index_generator.rs # Index file generation
└── README.md              # This file

Usage

Prerequisites

Rust 1.70 or later
Cargo

Build and Run

# Build the project
cargo build --release

# Run the report generator
cargo run --release

Configuration

Edit pricing_config.json to adjust:

AI Progress Factor - How much AI acceleration impacts valuations (0.0 - 0.3)
Timeline Phases - Timeline multipliers for each AI phase
Token Type Adjustments - Base multipliers per token type
Risk Class Multipliers - Risk class impact on valuation
Capital Flight Factors - Liquidity-based adjustments
Tariff Calculation - Formula and bounds

Input Data Format

Token data files in data/ should be JSON arrays with the following structure:

[
  {
    "symbol": "SOL",
    "name": "Solana",
    "archetype": "Class B (Systemic)",
    "insider_score": 48,
    "rank": 5,
    "token_type": "ProtocolUtility",
    "ai_category": "PassiveUtility",
    "tags": ["native", "gas", "layer-1"],
    "tariff_override": 30,
    "reason": "The Currency of the Realm."
  }
]

Token Fields

Field	Type	Required	Description
`symbol`	string	Yes	Token ticker symbol
`name`	string	Yes	Full token name
`archetype`	string	Yes	Risk class (e.g., "Class A (Real Yield)")
`insider_score`	number	Yes	0-100 insider concentration (higher = more centralized)
`tags`	array	Yes	Array of tags for auto-detection
`tariff_override`	number	No	Manual tariff friction percentage
`reason`	string	No	Analyst notes
`rank`	number	No	Market cap rank (1-999) for capital flight calculation
`token_type`	string	No	Explicit type override (see below)
`ai_category`	string	No	Explicit AI category override (see below)
`parent_token`	string	No	Parent token for wrapped/bridged assets

Token Types

Value	Base Multiplier	Description
`HardMoney`	20x - 50x	BTC, decentralized PoW
`CommodityBacked`	5x - 10x	Gold, silver tokenized
`WrappedBridge`	10x - 25x	Cross-chain wrapped assets
`RealYield`	0.5x - 1.5x	Revenue-generating protocols
`FiatPegged`	0.01x - 0.05x	USDC, USDT, stablecoins
`LiquidStaking`	0.5x - 1.5x	LSTs like JitoSOL, mSOL
`ProtocolUtility`	10x - 25x	General utility tokens
`Governance`	0.1x - 1.0x	Pure governance tokens
`Meme`	0.01x - 0.2x	Meme/culture tokens
`AINative`	15x - 40x	AI agent tokens
`AIEnabled`	10x - 30x	DePIN/GPU compute

AI Categories

Value	Timeline Factor	Description
`Static`	0.20x	Cannot evolve (BTC, gold)
`PassiveUtility`	1.00x	Limited AI adaptation
`AIEnabled`	8.33x	Can integrate AI (DePIN)
`AINative`	8.33x	Built for AI ecosystems
`AIEvolving`	12.50x	Self-modifying with AI

Rank-Based Capital Flight Factor

Rank Range	Factor	Description
1-9	1.2x	Blue-chip premium
10-49	1.0x	No adjustment
50-99	0.8x	Slight penalty
100-299	0.5x	Moderate penalty
300+	0.2x	Heavy penalty for illiquid alts

Tag-Based Auto-Detection

If token_type is not explicitly set, it's auto-detected from tags:

Tag Pattern	Detected Type
`hard-money`, `pow`	HardMoney
`commodity`, `gold`	CommodityBacked
`fiat-pegged`	FiatPegged
`liquid-staking`, `lst`	LiquidStaking
`real-yield`	RealYield
`governance`	Governance
`meme`	Meme
`bridged`	WrappedBridge

If ai_category is not explicitly set, it's auto-detected from tags:

Tag Pattern	AI Category
`ai` + `agent`	AINative
`gpu-compute`, `depin`	AIEnabled
`hard-money`, `pow`, `gold`, `commodity`	Static
(default)	PassiveUtility

Output

Generated reports are saved to the reports/ directory: - reports/index.md - Main index with all tokens - reports/tariffs.md - AI-acceleration tariffs summary - reports/tokens/{symbol}.md - Individual token analysis - reports/summaries/{class}.md - Risk class summary

Example Output

SOL (Protocol Utility)

Token Type: ProtocolUtility
AI Category: Passive Utility
Rank: 5 (Blue-chip premium: 1.2x)
Base Multiplier Range: 10x - 25x
AI Timeline Factor: 1.00x
Real Valuation Multiplier: 20.15x
Tariff: 0%
Trading Signal: HOLD

USDT (Fiat-Pegged)

Token Type: FiatPegged
AI Category: Static
Rank: 4 (Blue-chip: 1.2x)
Base Multiplier Range: 0.01x - 0.05x
AI Timeline Factor: 0.20x
Real Valuation Multiplier: 0.01x
Tariff: 14,687%
Trading Signal: AVOID
Reasoning: Fiat-pegged assets collapse under AI acceleration.

RENDER (AI-Enabled DePIN)

Token Type: ProtocolUtility
AI Category: AI-Enabled
Rank: 50 (Mid-tier: 1.0x)
Base Multiplier Range: 10x - 25x
AI Timeline Factor: 8.33x
Real Valuation Multiplier: 144.84x
Tariff: 0%
Trading Signal: HOLD
Reasoning: AI-Enabled DePIN tokens benefit enormously from AI acceleration.

tBTC (Hard Money)

Token Type: HardMoney
AI Category: Static
Rank: 10 (Blue-chip: 1.2x)
Base Multiplier Range: 20x - 50x
AI Timeline Factor: 0.20x
Real Valuation Multiplier: 8.40x
Tariff: 2%
Trading Signal: BUY
Reasoning: Hard money assets retain value but don't benefit from AI.

Dependencies

serde / serde_json - JSON serialization
chrono - Date/time handling
clap - Command-line argument parsing
anyhow - Error handling
thiserror - Custom error types